UBER
Uber Technologies, IncNYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price as of Aug 17, 2026 · Valuation Aug 16, 2026
What drives UBER's base case?
base-case thesisUber enters the forecast with slower reported sales growth but continued strength in trips, bookings, and memberships. The base case assumes Mobility and Delivery both remain healthy, while advertising and shared platform costs steadily improve profitability. Growth moderates as the company becomes larger, but the business remains relatively light on physical assets.
What shapes the assumptions
Q1 and Q2 revenue remained in double-digit growth
Annual revenue growth begins near the latest 12% rate
Informs revenue growth
Quarterly profitability reached 13% to 15% of revenue
Profit retained from each dollar of revenue
Raises operating margin
Revenue reached more than $55 billion over the latest year
Scale available to spread technology and administrative costs
Raises operating margin
Growth slowed from 18% in 2025
Long-run revenue expansion
Lowers terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 17.9% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 33.9% a year — so the price assumes less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 25.9% operating margin, against the 19.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 54.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Base inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$55.2B
Diluted shares
2,050,225,000
Net cash
-$5.3B
Bear
low confidence$30.40
IV / share
-60.0% vs $75.93
- Explicit cash flows
- $9.15
- Terminal value
- $23.85
- Net cash
- -$2.60
- Intrinsic value / share
- $30.40
78.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth9.0% → 8.0% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%medium
How derived: Revenue growth slowed from 0.18 in 2025 to 0.1448 in Q1 2026 and 0.1217 in Q2, so this case assumes weaker consumer demand, competition, and progressively greater market maturity reduce growth to 0.05 by year five.
Why this confidence: Two recent reported quarters establish a clear revenue deceleration ↑, The five-year path depends on uncertain demand, currency, and revenue-recognition changes ↓
Evidence for
- Reported revenue growth slowed from 0.18 for 2025 to 0.14 in Q1 2026, before slowing further in the supplied Q2 actual.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 trips increased 0.20 and constant-currency Gross Bookings increased 0.21, indicating underlying platform demand remained much stronger than this revenue path.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin15.0%medium
How derived: The supplied quarterly margin was 0.1456 in Q1 and 0.1332 in Q2, so this case allows only modest improvement to 0.15 as insurance, incentives, regulation, and platform investment absorb most scale benefits.
Why this confidence: The target is close to recently reported profitability ↑, Insurance, incentives, and legal expenses can vary materially by period ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 income from operations was $1.923 billion on $13.203 billion of revenue, a margin close to the assumed long-run level.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber states that general and administrative expense should decrease as a share of revenue as fixed-cost leverage and internal efficiencies improve.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate27.0%low
How derived: Starting with the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate and Uber's disclosed state, foreign, and uncertain-tax exposures, this case adds a larger normalized burden and assumes limited benefit from loss carryforwards.
Why this confidence: The statutory rate and tax-attribute balances are disclosed ↑, The timing and jurisdictional use of deferred tax assets are highly uncertain ↓
Evidence for
- Uber disclosed $5.1 billion of unrecognized tax benefits that would affect its effective rate if recognized and warned that multinational tax rules are uncertain.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber reported substantial U.S. and foreign net-operating-loss carryforwards that may shelter future taxable income.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate35.0%low
How derived: Although 2025 property purchases were only $336 million, this case assumes 0.35 of after-tax operating profit must be retained because weaker unit economics and autonomous-vehicle commitments make future growth more capital-intensive.
Why this confidence: Current capital spending and announced autonomous-vehicle commitments are disclosed ↑, It is unclear how much vehicle funding will ultimately be supplied by third-party fleet partners ↓
Evidence for
- Uber committed to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, with Uber or fleet partners expected to purchase an initial 10,000 autonomous vehicles.[Uber-Rivian Robotaxi Partnership]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber generated $9.763 billion of free cash flow in 2025 while purchasing only $336 million of property and equipment, demonstrating an historically asset-light model.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: The rate is set below recent growth because a mature global transportation and delivery platform should eventually track slow nominal economic expansion while facing persistent competition and regulation.
Why this confidence: The assumption is bounded by mature-economy growth ↑, Conditions beyond the explicit forecast period are inherently uncertain ↓
Evidence for
- Uber identifies extensive local regulation, competition, pricing rules, labor requirements, and international operating complexity as enduring constraints.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber's 2025 trips increased 0.20 and monthly active platform consumers increased 0.18, suggesting the network was still expanding rapidly.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Base
low confidence$54.98
IV / share
-27.6% vs $75.93
- Explicit cash flows
- $14.51
- Terminal value
- $43.07
- Net cash
- -$2.60
- Intrinsic value / share
- $54.98
78.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth12.0% → 11.0% → 10.0% → 9.0% → 8.0%medium
How derived: Beginning with Q1 and Q2 reported revenue growth of 0.1448 and 0.1217, this case assumes trip growth, Delivery, membership, and advertising sustain double-digit expansion initially before scale reduces growth to 0.08.
Why this confidence: Recent revenue, trip, and booking data provide a direct starting point ↑, Revenue can diverge from bookings because of currency, incentives, and business-model classification ↓
Evidence for
- Uber reported Q1 trip growth of 0.20, constant-currency Gross Bookings growth of 0.21, and 199 million monthly active platform consumers.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Reported Q1 revenue growth was only 0.14 despite much faster trip and booking growth, and the supplied Q2 actual slowed further to 0.1217.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin19.0%medium
How derived: Starting from margins of 0.1456 in Q1 and 0.1332 in Q2, this case adds gradual fixed-cost leverage and Delivery monetization while retaining meaningful spending on insurance, support, and technology.
Why this confidence: Several years of improving reported profitability support continued scale benefits ↑, The target remains materially above the latest quarterly result ↓
Evidence for
- Uber's 2025 income from operations nearly doubled to $5.565 billion while general and administrative expense declined to 0.06 of revenue from 0.08.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The supplied Q2 2026 margin declined to 0.1332 from 0.1456 in Q1, showing that quarterly profitability does not improve in a straight line.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: The assumption combines the 0.21 U.S. statutory rate with the 0.027 state and local component Uber disclosed for 2025, rounded for foreign mix and partial use of tax attributes.
Why this confidence: The assumption is closely tied to disclosed statutory and state rates ↑, Tax-loss utilization and multinational tax disputes can distort cash taxes ↓
Evidence for
- Uber's 2025 rate reconciliation included a 0.21 federal statutory rate and a 0.027 state and local component.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber paid only $345 million of income taxes in 2025 and retains substantial loss carryforwards, which could keep cash taxes below the normalized rate for some time.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate28.0%medium
How derived: Uber's low physical capital spending and strong cash conversion support a modest rate, but this case retains 0.28 of after-tax operating profit for software, working capital, acquisitions, safety, and autonomous-platform commitments.
Why this confidence: Reported capital spending and free cash flow establish asset intensity ↑, Acquisitions, working capital, and partner-funded vehicles make accounting capital expenditure incomplete ↓
Evidence for
- Uber said it expects research and development expense to increase in absolute dollars as it continues improving and maintaining its platform.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber's 2025 property purchases were only $336 million and free cash flow was $9.763 billion, indicating limited physical capital needs.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The rate assumes Uber eventually grows with global nominal transportation and delivery spending, below its explicit forecast growth but above the bear case because its network spans multiple services and countries.
Why this confidence: A diversified global platform supports persistence ↑, Long-run industry structure and autonomous-vehicle economics remain unresolved ↓
Evidence for
- Uber served 202 million monthly active platform consumers in 2025, with trips increasing 0.20, supporting enduring relevance across a broad network.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber describes intense local competition and extensive transportation, labor, pricing, privacy, and tax regulation across its markets.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$88.44
IV / share
+16.5% vs $75.93
- Explicit cash flows
- $20.85
- Terminal value
- $70.19
- Net cash
- -$2.60
- Intrinsic value / share
- $88.44
79.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull revenue growth (avg 13%) runs well above the trailing -4% trend
Revenue growth15.0% → 14.0% → 13.0% → 12.0% → 10.0%medium
How derived: Starting from Q1 trip growth of 0.20 and booking growth of 0.21, this case assumes rising engagement, Delivery, advertising, and autonomous supply keep revenue growth above the recent Q2 rate before a gradual decline to 0.10.
Why this confidence: Trips, bookings, and membership provide several independent demand indicators ↑, The forecast requires revenue to reaccelerate from the latest reported quarter ↓
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 trips increased 0.20, constant-currency Gross Bookings increased 0.21, and Uber One reached 50 million members accounting for half of Mobility and Delivery bookings.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Evidence against
- Reported revenue increased only 0.14 in Q1 2026 and slowed to 0.1217 in the supplied Q2 actual, below the first four years of this path.[Uber Q1 2026 Results]· primary
Operating margin23.0%low
How derived: From the supplied Q1 and Q2 margins of 0.1456 and 0.1332, this case assumes strong fixed-cost leverage, advertising mix, Delivery improvement, and efficient autonomous supply lift the fifth-year level to 0.23.
Why this confidence: Recent profit growth has materially outpaced revenue growth ↑, The target requires a large improvement from current profitability ↓
Evidence for
- Uber's 2025 income from operations increased 0.99 while revenue increased 0.18, demonstrating substantial incremental profitability.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber expects research and development spending to rise in absolute terms, and its latest supplied quarterly margin remained only 0.1332.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Tax rate21.0%low
How derived: This case uses the U.S. statutory rate because research credits and loss carryforwards offset most state and foreign additions as Uber converts deferred tax assets into cash savings.
Why this confidence: Large disclosed tax attributes can reduce future cash taxes ↑, Cross-border tax disputes and realization limits are difficult to forecast ↓
Evidence for
- Uber reported $4.1 billion of U.S. federal loss carryforwards with unlimited carryover and $19.3 billion of unlimited foreign loss carryforwards.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber operates across many tax jurisdictions and disclosed significant unrecognized tax benefits and potential exposure to greater-than-anticipated tax liabilities.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate24.0%medium
How derived: Uber's 2025 free cash flow and low property spending indicate high capital efficiency, so this case assumes only 0.24 of after-tax operating profit is needed when software and third-party fleets provide most incremental capacity.
Why this confidence: Strong free cash conversion and low physical capital spending are established ↑, Autonomous-vehicle funding could change the historical asset-light model ↓
Evidence for
- Uber produced $9.763 billion of free cash flow in 2025 while property purchases were $336 million, and its WeRide rollout uses a third-party fleet operator.[Uber 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Uber committed up to $1.25 billion to Rivian and may participate in purchasing thousands of autonomous vehicles, which could increase capital needs.[Uber-Rivian Robotaxi Partnership]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: This case assumes Uber remains a leading global access layer for human-driven and autonomous transportation, allowing mature growth near long-run nominal economic expansion despite eventual market saturation.
Why this confidence: A broad global network and new transportation formats support durability ↑, A perpetual assumption is highly sensitive to distant technological and regulatory outcomes ↓
Evidence for
- Uber continues extending its platform into autonomous transport through multi-city partnerships while its 2025 active consumers and trips grew 0.18 and 0.20.[Uber-WeRide Zurich Partnership]· primary
Evidence against
- Current autonomous service remains limited to selected areas, and Uber's filings identify competition and regulation as persistent constraints.[Uber Autonomous Vehicles Update]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating54 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 78% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 20.4% | 0.98 | 128.1% | 2.15B | 2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 13.8% | 1.06 | 62.3% | 2.12B | 2.0% |
| Q2 2025 | 18.2% | 1.16 | 45.5% | 2.13B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 20.4% | 1.05 | 7.2% | 2.12B | -1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 14.5% | 1.1 | 4.1% | 2.07B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 12.2% | 1.36 | 17.0% | 2.05B | -3.5% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The latest retrievable 2026 U.S. Treasury daily curve observation, dated July 29, reports a 10-year par yield of 0.0467.
The market-data service reports Uber's five-year monthly equity beta as 1.16, which is used without adjustment.
The January 2026 country-risk dataset reports a total U.S. equity risk premium of 0.0446 based on the implied return of the equity market over the risk-free rate.
The latest retrievable historical-market observation reports an adjusted closing price of $70.74 on July 28, 2026.
Generated 8/16/2026, 8:04:36 AM · pipeline v1.1.0