V
VISA INC.NYSEValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives V's base case?
base-case thesisVisa's payment volume, processed transactions and cross-border activity are all still expanding, while added services are growing faster than the core network. The model assumes those engines sustain strong near-term sales gains, followed by a gradual slowdown as the business becomes larger. Network scale broadly offsets ongoing investment in people, technology and customer relationships.
What shapes the assumptions
FY2026 Q1-Q2 sales growth accelerated from 0.146 to 0.171
year-over-year quarterly revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
FY2026 Q2 payment volume and processed transactions each grew 0.09
constant-dollar payment-volume and transaction growth
Raises revenue growth
FY2026 Q1-Q2 profitability ranged from 0.618 to 0.644
quarterly operating profit divided by revenue
Informs operating margin
FY2025 capital purchases and acquisitions totaled 2.369 billion dollars
annual growth investment
Informs reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 18.6% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 15.0% a year, so the price assumes about what it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 86.5% operating margin, against the 60.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 53.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Net revenue growth, fiscal year YoY
Annual growth in Visa's total net revenue; the primary top-line driver behind the DCF's forecast revenue line.
11.3%
reported1. Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars
It measures year-over-year growth in purchase volume carried on Visa products and directly drives service revenue.
10.0%
reported2. Quarterly GAAP operating profit margin
It measures the share of quarterly revenue remaining after operating costs and is the principal bridge from sales to operating cash generation.
59.1%
derived3. Quarterly processed-transaction growth
It measures year-over-year growth in transactions processed by Visa and is the primary volume driver of data-processing revenue.
10.0%
reported3. Value-added services revenue growth, constant-dollar YoY
Growth in Visa's non-transaction, value-added services revenue (risk/fraud, advisory, data, open banking); the fastest-growing and typically higher-margin part of the revenue mix.
26.0%
reported4. Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe
It measures constant-dollar growth in the cross-border activity that Visa identifies as the driver of international-transaction revenue.
12.0%
reported4. Effective income tax rate, fiscal year
Visa's reported effective tax rate on pre-tax income; directly sets the after-tax operating profit used in the DCF.
17.0%
reported5. Capital expenditure, % of net revenue, fiscal year
Capital expenditures divided by net revenue; measures how much of every revenue dollar Visa must reinvest in fixed infrastructure to keep operating and growing.
3.7%
derived5. Annual value-added-services revenue
It measures revenue from issuing, acceptance, risk, security and advisory services that diversify Visa beyond core payment-network fees.
$11B
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$43B
Diluted shares
1,898,000,000
Net cash
-$11.6B
Bear
low confidence$189.84
IV / share
-49.4% vs $375.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $44.07
- Terminal value
- $151.87
- Net cash
- -$6.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $189.84
80.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth8.0% → 7.5% → 7.0% → 6.5% → 6.0%medium
How derived: Starting from FY2025 growth of 0.113 and FY2026 Q1-Q2 growth of 0.146 and 0.171, this path assumes consumer spending weakens, pricing contributes less, and competition and incentives reduce growth toward 0.06.
Why this confidence: Recent company-reported growth ↑, Five-year macroeconomic and competitive uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Net revenue growth, fiscal year YoY11.3%reported
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Value-added services revenue growth, constant-dollar YoY26.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- Visa identifies intense competition, national payment schemes, real-time-payment networks, digital wallets and alternative payment providers as threats to transaction growth.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 Q2 revenue grew 0.17, while payment volume and processed transactions each grew 0.09.[Visa Q2 FY2026 results]· primary
Operating margin60.0%medium
How derived: Starting from recent quarterly margins above 0.61, the target falls to 0.60 because incentives, personnel, technology, marketing and legal costs are assumed to grow faster than revenue.
Why this confidence: Established high-margin network economics ↑, Litigation and expense volatility ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profit margin59.1%derived
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- FY2026 Q3 operating expenses increased 0.19, exceeding revenue growth of 0.14, with personnel and marketing among the principal increases.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The supplied FY2026 Q1 and Q2 actuals show margins of approximately 0.618 and 0.644, demonstrating substantial network scale.[Visa Q2 FY2026 results]· primary
Tax rate20.0%medium
How derived: Starting from reported rates of 0.17 in FY2024-FY2025 and 0.18 in FY2023, the forecast rises to 0.20 as temporary benefits fade and global minimum-tax and regulatory changes increase the burden.
Why this confidence: Three years of reported tax history ↑, Changing international tax rules ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year17.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa disclosed that its FY2025 rate benefited from a 263 million dollar tax benefit and that jurisdictions were implementing the OECD 0.15 global minimum tax.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa reported rates of 0.17 in both FY2024 and FY2025 and said 2025 U.S. tax legislation was not expected to have a material future impact.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate18.0%low
How derived: Starting from FY2025 property-and-technology purchases of 1.482 billion dollars and acquisitions of 0.887 billion dollars, this case raises reinvestment to 0.18 of after-tax operating profit to cover heavier technology, client and competitive spending.
Why this confidence: Audited capital-spending and acquisition data ↑, Working-capital and acquisition timing variability ↓, Reinvestment is a model-derived measure ↓
Measured by
- Capital expenditure, % of net revenue, fiscal year3.7%derived
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- Visa said technology and processing-network investment continued to support growth and acquisitions, while FY2025 property-and-technology purchases rose to 1.482 billion dollars.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2025 operating cash flow was 23.059 billion dollars, far above property-and-technology purchases and acquisitions combined, confirming low physical capital intensity.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Starting from Visa's continuing exposure to electronic-payment adoption, this case limits perpetual growth to 0.02 because mature scale, regulation and competing payment systems constrain long-run expansion.
Why this confidence: Persistent shift from paper to electronic payments ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa competes with cash and checks, leaving a continuing avenue for electronic-payment conversion.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa warns that regulation, national schemes, real-time-payment networks, fintechs and alternative payment systems can reduce volume and revenue.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Base
low confidence$258.21
IV / share
-31.2% vs $375.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $51.44
- Terminal value
- $212.86
- Net cash
- -$6.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $258.21
82.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.64 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth12.0% → 10.5% → 9.5% → 8.5% → 7.5%medium
How derived: Starting from FY2025 growth of 0.113 and FY2026 Q1-Q2 growth of 0.146 and 0.171, this path assumes transaction growth, pricing and value-added services sustain double-digit growth initially before scale produces a gradual slowdown.
Why this confidence: Multiple recent quarterly disclosures ↑, Dependence on consumer spending and cross-border travel ↓
Measured by
- Net revenue growth, fiscal year YoY11.3%reported
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Value-added services revenue growth, constant-dollar YoY26.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Price implies: 18.6% vs our 9.6% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- FY2026 Q2 revenue grew 0.17 as payment volume and processed transactions grew 0.09 and cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe grew 0.11.[Visa Q2 FY2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 Q3 revenue growth moderated to 0.14 and international-transaction revenue growth slowed to 0.06 despite continued volume growth.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%medium
How derived: Starting from supplied FY2026 Q1-Q2 margins of approximately 0.618 and 0.644, the target holds at 0.64 as network scale offsets continued spending on people, marketing and technology.
Why this confidence: Recent reported profitability ↑, Quarterly litigation and severance volatility ↓
Clamped from 64.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profit margin59.1%derived
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Price implies: 86.5% vs our 60.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- FY2026 Q2 produced 7.234 billion dollars of operating income on 11.230 billion dollars of revenue, a derived margin of approximately 0.644.[Visa Q2 FY2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 Q3 non-GAAP operating expenses grew 0.17 and reported operating expenses grew 0.19, both faster than revenue.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Tax rate18.0%high
How derived: Starting from FY2023-FY2025 reported rates of 0.18, 0.17 and 0.17, the model normalizes to 0.18 as discrete benefits fade but Visa retains its geographically diversified earnings profile.
Why this confidence: Stable multiyear reported range ↑, Discrete benefits and international tax changes ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year17.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa reported a 0.18 effective rate for FY2023 and a 0.176 rate for FY2026 Q3.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective rate was only 0.17 in FY2024 and FY2025, while the FY2026 nine-month reported rate was 0.16 because of discrete benefits.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Reinvestment rate14.0%low
How derived: Starting from FY2025 capital purchases and acquisitions equal to roughly 0.12 of after-tax operating profit, the model uses 0.14 to include incremental technology, client-incentive and working-capital needs.
Why this confidence: Audited cash-flow disclosures ↑, Irregular acquisition spending ↓, Model-dependent working-capital treatment ↓
Measured by
- Capital expenditure, % of net revenue, fiscal year3.7%derived
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- FY2025 property-and-technology purchases were 1.482 billion dollars and acquisitions used 0.887 billion dollars.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa acquired Prisma and Newpay for 1.5 billion dollars in FY2026, illustrating that acquisition-driven reinvestment can exceed a normalized annual allowance.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth2.8%low
How derived: Starting from the continuing conversion of cash and checks to electronic payments, the model uses 0.0275 as a mature nominal growth rate below the current long-term Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Structural electronic-payment adoption ↑, Perpetual horizon and future competition ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa still competes with cash and checks, and its FY2026 filing says the shift toward digital commerce and electronic payments is expected to continue.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa reports growing competition from domestic schemes, real-time-payment networks, fintechs, digital wallets and government-supported platforms.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$345.75
IV / share
-7.8% vs $375.07
- Explicit cash flows
- $57.93
- Terminal value
- $293.91
- Net cash
- -$6.10
- Intrinsic value / share
- $345.75
85.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
targetOperatingMargin of 0.66 clamped to [-1, 0.6]
Revenue growth15.0% → 13.5% → 12.0% → 10.5% → 9.0%medium
How derived: Starting from FY2026 Q1-Q2 growth of 0.146 and 0.171, this path assumes resilient spending, sustained transaction growth, pricing and rapidly expanding value-added services keep growth elevated before a gradual scale-driven slowdown.
Why this confidence: Broad growth across payments and services ↑, Aggressive duration of double-digit growth ↓
Measured by
- Net revenue growth, fiscal year YoY11.3%reported
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Value-added services revenue growth, constant-dollar YoY26.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- FY2026 Q3 value-added-services revenue increased 0.33, supported by issuing, acceptance and advisory services, while payment credentials increased 0.08.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 Q3 revenue growth moderated to 0.14 from 0.17 in Q2, and client incentives increased 0.18.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Operating margin•60.0%medium
How derived: Starting from supplied FY2026 Q1-Q2 margins of approximately 0.618 and 0.644, the target rises to 0.66 as transaction and service revenue scale faster than normalized network and administrative costs.
Why this confidence: Previously achieved margin level ↑, Current expense growth above revenue growth ↓
Clamped from 66.0% by the guardrail.
Measured by
- Quarterly GAAP operating profit margin59.1%derived
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- Visa's supplied FY2024 Q3-Q4 actuals produced margins near 0.667 and 0.660, showing that a 0.66 margin has already been achieved.[Visa FY2024 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- FY2026 Q3 reported operating expenses grew 0.19 and non-GAAP operating expenses grew 0.17, reflecting elevated personnel and marketing spending.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Tax rate17.0%medium
How derived: Starting from reported rates of 0.17 in FY2024 and FY2025, this case assumes geographic mix and tax planning preserve that rate without relying on the unusually low FY2026 year-to-date result.
Why this confidence: Two consecutive full years at the assumed rate ↑, Quarterly and regulatory tax variability ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year17.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa reported an effective rate of 0.17 in each of FY2024 and FY2025.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa's FY2026 Q3 non-GAAP effective rate was 0.184, while global minimum-tax implementation may raise future taxes.[Visa Q3 FY2026 results]· primary
Reinvestment rate11.0%low
How derived: Starting from FY2025 capital purchases and acquisitions equal to roughly 0.12 of after-tax operating profit, this case assumes improving software and network productivity permits faster growth with reinvestment of 0.11.
Why this confidence: Strong reported cash conversion ↑, High growth paired with low reinvestment is demanding ↓, Acquisition timing uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Capital expenditure, % of net revenue, fiscal year3.7%derived
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Evidence for
- FY2025 operating cash flow of 23.059 billion dollars substantially exceeded property-and-technology purchases of 1.482 billion dollars, reflecting an asset-light network.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa continues to invest in technology, acquisitions and client incentives, and FY2026 Q3 network-and-processing expenses increased 0.25.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Terminal growth3.5%low
How derived: Starting from continuing electronic-payment adoption and rapid expansion in value-added services, this case uses 0.035 while keeping perpetual growth below the current 0.0478 long-term Treasury yield.
Why this confidence: Fast growth in services beyond card payments ↑, Optimistic perpetual assumption ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
Evidence for
- Visa reported FY2026 nine-month value-added-services growth of 0.32 and expects the shift toward digital commerce and electronic payments to continue.[Visa Q3 FY2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Visa's 10-K describes intense competition and increasing regulation that can materially affect payment volume and revenue.[Visa FY2025 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating53 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 82% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Valuation history every run
Why intrinsic value changed
Why
Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars moved from an unreported prior value to 10.0%, as reported in Visa Q3 FY2026 results.
Measured by
- Net revenue growth, fiscal year YoY11.3%reported
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
- Quarterly processed-transaction growth10.0%reported
- Value-added services revenue growth, constant-dollar YoY26.0%reported
- Quarterly cross-border volume growth excluding intra-Europe12.0%reported
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Why
Annual value-added-services revenue moved from an unreported prior value to $10.9B, as reported in Visa FY2025 10-K.
Measured by
- Capital expenditure, % of net revenue, fiscal year3.7%derived
- Annual value-added-services revenue$11Breported
Why
Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars moved from an unreported prior value to 10.0%, as reported in Visa Q3 FY2026 results.
Measured by
- Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars10.0%reported
Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled
Material event timeline
7/28/2026
Quarterly payment-volume growth, constant dollars moved from an unreported prior value to 10.0%, as reported in Visa Q3 FY2026 results.
Visa Q3 FY2026 results ↗9/30/2025
Annual value-added-services revenue moved from an unreported prior value to $10.9B, as reported in Visa FY2025 10-K.
Visa FY2025 10-K ↗Market inputs researched
The value is Visa's published five-year monthly equity beta, an estimate based on historical market-price covariance.
The value is the trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium calculated for 2026-09-01.
Generated 9/5/2026, 11:41:29 AM · pipeline v1.2.0