VZ
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INCNYSEValuation snapshot
Below bear casePrice is below even the bear case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives VZ's base case?
base-case thesisVerizon's service sales and customer additions strengthened through the first half of 2026 even though fewer device purchases held back total sales. The larger fiber footprint should support modest growth, while mature wireless competition keeps that growth restrained. Cost discipline roughly offsets the expense of integrating and expanding the fiber network.
What shapes the assumptions
Improving service sales
Mobility and broadband service growth accelerated from 0.016 in first-quarter 2026 to 0.028 in second-quarter 2026
Raises revenue growth
Operating discipline
Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth of 0.072
Raises operating margin
Stable recent tax burden
2024 and 2025 effective tax rates of 0.219 and 0.223
Informs tax rate
Moderating network build
Capital spending declined from 18.767 billion dollars in 2023 to 17.011 billion dollars in 2025
Lowers reinvestment
Mature but recurring connectivity demand
2025 revenue growth of 0.025 after 2024 growth of 0.006
Informs terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows -9.0% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 0.9% a year — so the price assumes far less than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 12.7% operating margin, against the 21.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 57.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth
This measures comparable year-over-year growth in Verizon's core recurring connectivity revenue, which is more informative than device-driven consolidated sales volatility.
2.8%
reported2. Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly
This tracks the net change in recurring, relatively high-value phone relationships and therefore indicates whether Verizon is gaining or losing its core wireless customers.
184,000
reported3. Broadband net additions, quarterly
This measures Verizon's quarterly net customer growth across fiber and fixed wireless, the main volume engine outside mature mobile service.
348,000
reported4. Adjusted EBITDA margin, quarterly
This tracks the recurring cash-like profitability of each dollar of quarterly revenue before network depreciation, financing and taxes.
40.1%
reported5. Capital expenditures, annual
This measures the cash committed each year to network, fiber, software and capacity, making it the clearest reported indicator of Verizon's recurring investment burden.
$17B
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$138.9B
Diluted shares
4,171,000,000
Net cash
-$20B
Bear
low confidence$54.47
IV / share
+7.7% vs $50.59
- Explicit cash flows
- $10.75
- Terminal value
- $48.52
- Net cash
- -$4.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $54.47
89.1% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth0.5% → 0.8% → 1.0% → 1.2% → 1.2%medium
How derived: Starting from the latest quarter's 0.007 revenue decline and the continuing contraction in equipment and Business revenue, this path assumes broadband gains only narrowly outweigh mature wireless and legacy-service pressure.
Why this confidence: Latest reported total-revenue decline ↑, Service-revenue guidance contradicts the downside path ↓, Five-year competitive and product-mix uncertainty ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 total revenue declined 0.007 year over year because equipment revenue fell nearly 0.20.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Verizon Business revenue declined 0.016 in 2025 even as Consumer revenue increased.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Management raised 2026 mobility and broadband service-revenue growth guidance to 0.025-0.03 and expected growth to approach 0.04 in the fourth quarter.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Operating margin19.5%medium
How derived: Starting from the recent quarterly margin range of roughly 0.14-0.24, this case assumes competition, restructuring and fiber integration keep the normalized margin below the stronger recent quarters.
Why this confidence: Wide recent GAAP profitability range ↓, Company-reported restructuring costs ↑, Record adjusted profitability provides contrary evidence ↓
Measured by
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Adjusted EBITDA margin, quarterly40.1%reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 net income was reduced by 1.8 billion dollars of pre-tax special items, including disposition, rationalization and severance charges.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Consumer segment operating margin fell to 0.287 in second-quarter 2025 from 0.305 a year earlier.[Verizon 2Q25 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 0.072 and its margin reached a company-record 0.401.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Tax rate24.0%medium
How derived: Starting from effective tax rates of 0.219 in 2024 and 0.223 in 2025, this case adds a modest buffer for state taxes and fewer favorable settlements.
Why this confidence: Two recent normalized annual observations ↑, State apportionment and tax-settlement variability ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The 2025 effective tax rate was 0.223, including a 0.033 state-and-local component net of the federal benefit.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective tax rate was lower at 0.219 in 2024, while the unusually high 0.288 rate in 2023 reflected a nondeductible impairment.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%medium
How derived: Starting from 17.0 billion dollars of 2025 capital spending and 16.0-16.5 billion dollars of 2026 guidance, this case assumes weak growth makes network, fiber and integration spending consume an elevated share of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Explicit 2026 capital-spending guidance ↑, Uncertain Frontier integration and future spectrum spending ↓, Reinvestment includes more than reported capital expenditure ↓
Measured by
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Evidence for
- Verizon states that its strategy requires significant investment in spectrum, network capacity, fiber and information systems.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Capital expenditures declined from 18.767 billion dollars in 2023 to 17.090 billion dollars in 2024 and 17.011 billion dollars in 2025.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth1.5%low
How derived: Starting from a mature revenue history with several flat or declining years, this rate assumes long-run connectivity demand grows more slowly than the broader nominal economy.
Why this confidence: Long history as a mature connectivity provider ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Uncertain inflation and technology substitution ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Evidence for
- Business revenue declined 0.016 in 2025 and second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue declined 0.007 year over year.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Verizon reported more than 17.1 million combined fixed-wireless and fiber connections after adding 348,000 broadband customers in second-quarter 2026.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Base
low confidence$88.68
IV / share
+75.3% vs $50.59
- Explicit cash flows
- $15.01
- Terminal value
- $78.47
- Net cash
- -$4.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $88.68
88.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth2.0% → 2.2% → 2.0% → 1.8% → 1.7%medium
How derived: Starting from 2025 growth of 0.025 and management's raised 2026 service-revenue outlook, this path assumes Frontier and broadband support low-single-digit growth while weaker equipment and legacy Business revenue limit consolidation.
Why this confidence: Raised near-term management guidance ↑, Broadband and phone-add momentum ↑, Equipment volatility and acquisition-comparability limits ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Price implies: -9.0% vs our 1.9% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Management raised 2026 mobility and broadband service-revenue growth guidance to 0.025-0.03 after reporting 0.028 growth in the second quarter.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- The Frontier acquisition expanded Verizon's fiber footprint to 31 states and Washington, D.C.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 total revenue declined 0.007 as equipment revenue fell by nearly 0.20.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Operating margin21.5%medium
How derived: Starting from 2025 operating income of about 0.212 of revenue and recent quarterly margins near the low-to-mid 0.20s outside special-item periods, this case assumes efficiency gains broadly offset competitive and integration costs.
Why this confidence: Target is close to the latest full-year reported result ↑, Documented efficiency gains ↑, Special items and Frontier integration ↓
Measured by
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Adjusted EBITDA margin, quarterly40.1%reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Price implies: 12.7% vs our 21.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA grew 0.072 and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 0.401.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Selling, general and administrative expense declined 0.009 in 2025 despite revenue growth.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 included 1.8 billion dollars of pre-tax special items, and recent reported quarterly profitability has been volatile.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Tax rate22.5%high
How derived: Starting from effective rates of 0.219 and 0.223 in the two latest full years, this case rounds to 0.225 as a normalized federal, state and foreign tax burden.
Why this confidence: Close agreement between the two latest annual rates ↑, Detailed statutory-rate reconciliation ↑, Possible nondeductible special items ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Verizon reported effective tax rates of 0.219 in 2024 and 0.223 in 2025.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The effective rate reached 0.288 in 2023 because a large goodwill impairment was not deductible, illustrating potential item-driven volatility.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%medium
How derived: Starting from stable annual capital spending near 17 billion dollars and slightly lower 2026 guidance, this case assumes ongoing fiber and network investment but gradual efficiency as the major 5G build matures.
Why this confidence: Current-year spending guidance ↑, Stable three-year capital-spending history ↑, Future spectrum and acquisition spending is unpredictable ↓
Measured by
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Evidence for
- Management maintained 2026 capital-expenditure guidance of 16.0-16.5 billion dollars after spending 8.2 billion dollars in the first half.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The company says continued investment is necessary for spectrum, capacity, fiber, network maintenance and advanced information systems.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Terminal growth2.0%low
How derived: Starting from Verizon's mature long-run revenue pattern but durable demand for mobile and broadband connectivity, this rate assumes growth broadly tracks long-run inflation rather than recent service momentum.
Why this confidence: Essential and recurring connectivity demand ↑, Long-run inflation uncertainty ↓, Technology and competitive disruption over an indefinite horizon ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Evidence for
- Verizon serves nationwide connectivity needs and reported approximately 17.1 million fixed-wireless and fiber broadband connections in second-quarter 2026.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- The annual report identifies intense competition and continuing declines in legacy Business products, while consolidated revenue has experienced multiple flat or declining years.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Bull
low confidence$127.96
IV / share
+152.9% vs $50.59
- Explicit cash flows
- $18.51
- Terminal value
- $114.26
- Net cash
- -$4.80
- Intrinsic value / share
- $127.96
89.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth3.5% → 3.5% → 3.0% → 2.5% → 2.2%medium
How derived: Starting from accelerating service revenue, more than one million first-half customer additions and Frontier's expanded fiber reach, this path assumes convergence and subscriber gains lift consolidated growth before it fades toward maturity.
Why this confidence: Accelerating service revenue and customer additions ↑, Expanded fiber footprint ↑, Consolidated sales have not yet matched service momentum ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Evidence for
- Verizon added more than one million mobility and broadband connections in the first half of 2026, more than twice the prior-year first-half amount.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Management expected mobility and broadband service-revenue growth to reach approximately 0.04 in fourth-quarter 2026.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue still declined 0.007 because equipment revenue dropped by more than 1.2 billion dollars.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Verizon Business revenue declined 0.016 in 2025.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Operating margin23.0%medium
How derived: Starting from record second-quarter adjusted profitability and recent GAAP quarterly margins near 0.24, this case assumes lower churn, reduced device subsidies and integration efficiencies sustain a 0.23 normalized margin.
Why this confidence: Record recent adjusted profitability ↑, Measured improvement in customer economics ↑, Target exceeds the latest full-year reported margin ↓
Measured by
- Postpaid phone net additions, quarterly184,000reported
- Adjusted EBITDA margin, quarterly40.1%reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Evidence for
- Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.072 to 13.7 billion dollars in second-quarter 2026 and adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 0.401.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
- Management attributed improved economics to lower churn and reduced acquisition and retention costs.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Consumer operating margin was 0.287 in second-quarter 2025, down from 0.305 one year earlier, showing that promotional and service costs can pressure profitability.[Verizon 2Q25 results]· primary
Tax rate21.5%medium
How derived: Starting from the 0.21 federal statutory rate and recent effective rates near 0.22, this case assumes tax credits and favorable state or settlement items keep the burden near the lower end of the recent normalized range.
Why this confidence: Statutory federal rate provides a firm reference ↑, Assumption requires recurring favorable adjustments ↓, State-tax exposure ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The federal statutory rate was 0.21, and Verizon reported foreign-tax benefits, tax credits and other favorable adjustments in its 2025 reconciliation.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- State and local taxes added 0.033 to the 2025 rate, producing a reported effective rate of 0.223.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate34.0%medium
How derived: Starting from declining annual capital expenditure and strong first-half cash-flow growth, this case assumes the enlarged network produces more subscriber and service growth without a proportional increase in reinvestment.
Why this confidence: Three-year capital-efficiency trend ↑, Strong recent cash-flow conversion ↑, Fiber expansion remains capital intensive ↓
Measured by
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
- Capital expenditures, annual$17Breported
Evidence for
- Capital expenditures declined from 18.767 billion dollars in 2023 to 17.011 billion dollars in 2025, with the 2025 reduction attributed to fiber and wireless infrastructure efficiencies.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
- First-half 2026 free cash flow increased 0.16 while mobility and broadband additions more than doubled.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Verizon continues to expect 16.0-16.5 billion dollars of 2026 capital spending while investing in wireless capacity and fiber growth.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: Starting from accelerating broadband and service demand, this rate assumes Verizon retains enough pricing power and fiber-led volume growth to expand slightly faster than the base case after the explicit forecast.
Why this confidence: Broadband connection growth ↑, Very long forecast horizon ↓, Historically slow fiber-revenue growth ↓
Measured by
- Quarterly mobility and broadband service growth2.8%reported
- Broadband net additions, quarterly348,000reported
Evidence for
- Verizon's fixed-wireless and fiber base reached approximately 17.1 million connections, with 348,000 broadband net additions in second-quarter 2026.[Verizon 2Q26 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Fios revenue was nearly flat across 2023-2025, moving from 12.849 billion dollars to 12.922 billion dollars.[Verizon 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating57 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 88% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -0.0% | — | — | 4.23B | 0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5% | — | — | 4.23B | 0.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2% | — | — | 4.23B | 0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5% | — | — | 4.23B | 0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9% | — | — | 4.21B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7% | — | — | 4.17B | -1.3% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The risk-free rate is the U.S. Treasury's 10-year nominal constant-maturity yield for 2026-09-04.
This is the published five-year monthly regression beta available for Verizon at the 2026-09-04 market close.
This is the trailing-12-month adjusted-payout implied U.S. equity risk premium calculated for 2026-09-01 from prevailing index cash flows, growth and Treasury yields.
This is Verizon's unadjusted closing share price on 2026-09-04, the latest completed trading session before the valuation date.
Generated 9/5/2026, 11:59:24 PM · pipeline v1.2.0