WELL
WELLTOWER INC.NYSEWhat drives WELL's base case?
base-case thesisWelltower is combining recovering occupancy and rent growth with an unusually large acquisition pipeline. The first several forecast years therefore retain strong reported growth, but the pace declines as acquired portfolios enter the comparison base. Better occupancy and restrained unit costs lift company-wide profitability, though depreciation and integration spending absorb part of the property-level benefit.
What shapes the assumptions
2025 revenue grew about 40% and latest-quarter revenue grew about 49%
Consolidated revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Q2 2026 organic seniors-housing revenue grew 9.2%
Same-store resident revenue
Raises revenue growth
Same-store occupancy gains contributed 3.3 percentage points in Q2 2026
Occupied senior-housing units
Raises operating margin
First-half 2026 completed investments totaled 9.4 billion dollars
Capital deployed into properties
Raises reinvestment
REIT status limits parent-level corporate tax
Cash taxes
Lowers tax rate
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 82.0% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 16.3% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 55.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
- Share count is still growing
- Diluted shares grew 11.1% year on year. This valuation uses today's share count, not tomorrow's — continued dilution would spread the same value across more shares.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year
Measures organic resident-revenue growth across comparable senior-housing properties, separating pricing and occupancy performance from acquisitions.
9.2%
reported2. SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end
Tracks the share of comparable senior-housing units occupied, the principal source of operating leverage while communities remain below full capacity.
88.9%
reported3. SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly
Measures property income retained from resident revenue across the entire senior-housing operating portfolio before corporate costs, depreciation and financing.
27.5%
reported4. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end
Tracks financial leverage and therefore Welltower's capacity to finance acquisitions and renovations without unduly raising capital risk.
2.99
reported5. Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly
Measures the acquisition capital actually deployed each quarter, which determines how much external growth enters future revenue and property income.
$6.1B
derivedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$9.4B
Diluted shares
726,255,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$22.54
IV / share
-90.7% vs $241.12
- Explicit cash flows
- $5.40
- Terminal value
- $17.14
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $22.54
76.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth15.0% → 10.0% → 7.0% → 5.0% → 4.0%medium
How derived: Six-month revenue rose 0.387 year over year, but organic seniors-housing revenue growth was only 0.092 in Q2, so this case assumes acquisition growth fades quickly and organic growth slows as occupancy gains mature.
Why this confidence: Reported organic and consolidated growth ↑, Uncertain acquisition timing and portfolio composition ↓, Five-year forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Evidence for
- Organic seniors-housing same-store revenue growth moderated from 0.101 in Q2 2025 to 0.092 in Q2 2026.[Welltower Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Six-month 2026 total revenue increased 0.387 year over year, and management reported substantial completed and pending investments that could sustain faster reported growth.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Operating margin15.0%medium
How derived: An EBIT-style margin derived from six-month revenue less property costs, depreciation and corporate overhead was about 0.173, and this case reduces it to 0.15 for wage pressure, integration costs and slower occupancy gains.
Why this confidence: Filed income-statement cost base ↑, Recent property-level margin expansion ↑, Depreciation and acquisition accounting sensitivity ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
Evidence for
- Senior housing is operationally intensive, and Welltower acknowledges wide performance dispersion among operators.[Welltower investor relations overview]· primary
Evidence against
- Q1 2026 seniors-housing same-store property margin expanded by 0.032 year over year to 0.309 as resident pricing outpaced unit expenses.[Welltower Q1 2026 business update]· primary
Tax rate4.0%medium
How derived: Welltower's REIT income is generally shielded at the corporate level, but this case applies 0.04 to recognize taxable subsidiaries, foreign and local taxes, withholding taxes and possible REIT excise tax.
Why this confidence: REIT tax treatment disclosed in filing ↑, Changing geographic and taxable-subsidiary mix ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Resident operations held in taxable REIT subsidiaries are subject to federal and state income taxes, while foreign investments can incur income-based and withholding taxes.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—income taxes]· primary
Evidence against
- Welltower has elected REIT taxation and distributes qualifying taxable income, substantially limiting federal corporate tax on the REIT itself.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—REIT status]· primary
Reinvestment rate45.0%low
How derived: Although Welltower completed 9.4 billion dollars of investments in the first half of 2026, this case assumes weaker acquisition economics and higher funding costs reduce sustainable reinvestment to 0.45 of after-tax operating profit.
Why this confidence: Completed investment disclosures ↑, Reinvestment-rate definition requires normalization of lumpy acquisitions ↓, Future asset pricing and equity issuance are uncertain ↓
Measured by
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Evidence for
- The weighted average rate on Welltower's combined debt was approximately 0.04 at June 30, 2026, while the latest ten-year Treasury yield was higher, indicating a less favorable future funding environment than the legacy debt book.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Welltower completed 9.4 billion dollars of pro-rata gross investments during the first half of 2026 and had another 6.1 billion dollars closed or under contract after quarter-end.[Welltower Q2 2026 results]· primary
Terminal growth1.8%low
How derived: The aging population supports durable demand, but this case limits perpetual growth to 0.018 because mature occupancy, eventual new supply and capital intensity should constrain growth below recent levels.
Why this confidence: Government demographic projections ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓, Long-run supply response is unknowable ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The Census Bureau projects that all baby boomers will be older than 65 by 2030, expanding the addressable senior population.[U.S. Census demographic projections]· primary
Evidence against
- Welltower reported that first-quarter 2026 senior-housing construction starts were about 0.87 below their peak, a condition that could support stronger long-run rent and occupancy growth than assumed here.[Welltower Q1 2026 business update]· primary
Base
low confidence$26.23
IV / share
-89.1% vs $241.12
- Explicit cash flows
- $5.43
- Terminal value
- $20.80
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $26.23
79.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth28.0% → 18.0% → 12.0% → 8.0% → 5.5%medium
How derived: Six-month revenue grew 0.387, supported by acquisitions and 0.092 organic seniors-housing growth, so the base path captures the signed investment pipeline before converging toward mid-single-digit organic growth.
Why this confidence: Completed and contracted investment pipeline ↑, Multiple quarters of reported organic growth ↑, Acquisition contribution depends on closing and integration ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Price implies: 82.0% vs our 14.3% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Welltower reported 15.5 billion dollars of year-to-date completed or contracted investments, providing a visible source of near-term consolidated growth.[Welltower Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Organic seniors-housing same-store revenue growth eased sequentially to 0.092 in Q2 2026 from 0.095 in Q1 and 0.096 in Q4 2025.[Welltower Q2 2026 results]· primary
Operating margin19.0%medium
How derived: The six-month EBIT-style margin was about 0.173, and the target rises to 0.19 as occupancy, resident pricing and the operating platform partly carry property-level margin expansion through fixed depreciation and corporate costs.
Why this confidence: Filed company-wide expenses ↑, Consistent recent property-margin expansion ↑, Integration and depreciation estimates ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 seniors-housing same-store property margin reached 0.309 after expanding 0.032 year over year, while unit expense growth was only 0.004.[Welltower Q1 2026 business update]· primary
Evidence against
- The filed company-wide cost structure includes substantial depreciation and amortization, causing improvements in property profit to translate less directly into EBIT.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate2.5%medium
How derived: The REIT structure removes most entity-level federal tax, while taxable subsidiaries and foreign operations justify a normalized 0.025 cash tax burden.
Why this confidence: Stable disclosed REIT framework ↑, Taxable-subsidiary and international mix ↓, Potential use of tax-loss carryforwards ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Welltower states that its taxable subsidiaries and certain non-U.S. investments incur federal, state, local, foreign and withholding taxes.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—income taxes]· primary
Evidence against
- The parent qualifies as a REIT and generally avoids federal corporate income tax by distributing qualifying taxable income.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—REIT status]· primary
Reinvestment rate65.0%low
How derived: The company completed 9.4 billion dollars of investments in the first half of 2026 and continues to renovate and stabilize acquired communities, supporting reinvestment equal to 0.65 of normalized after-tax operating profit after acquisition activity moderates.
Why this confidence: Large completed and contracted investment program ↑, Quarterly acquisition lumpiness ↓, Unknown future mix of debt, equity and dispositions ↓
Measured by
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Evidence for
- First-half completed investments were 9.4 billion dollars, and the company identifies renovations and redevelopment as tools to increase property income and achieve stabilization.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Evidence against
- Quarterly investment volume is highly variable, including 13.9 billion dollars in Q4 2025 versus 3.3 billion dollars in Q1 2026.[Welltower Q1 2026 results]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: A growing senior population and unusually low construction support a 0.025 perpetual rate, while eventual supply responses and slower economy-wide population growth prevent extrapolation of today's high growth.
Why this confidence: Long-duration demographic visibility ↑, Currently constrained construction pipeline ↑, Perpetual assumptions are inherently uncertain ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The Census Bureau projects that one in five Americans will be of retirement age in 2030, while Welltower reports senior-housing construction starts near global-financial-crisis levels.[U.S. Census demographic projections]· primary
Evidence against
- The Census Bureau expects overall U.S. population growth to slow beyond 2030, limiting economy-wide long-run demand growth.[U.S. Census demographic projections]· primary
Bull
low confidence$19.10
IV / share
-92.1% vs $241.12
- Explicit cash flows
- $3.36
- Terminal value
- $15.74
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $19.10
82.4% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth38.0% → 25.0% → 17.0% → 11.0% → 7.5%low
How derived: Six-month revenue growth of 0.387, 0.092 organic seniors-housing growth and a 15.5 billion dollar completed-or-contracted investment pipeline support another year near the recent pace followed by a gradual normalization.
Why this confidence: Strong filed revenue growth ↑, Visible contracted investment pipeline ↑, Dependence on sustained external capital deployment ↓, Aggressive multi-year acquisition assumption ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Evidence for
- Six-month revenue increased 0.387 year over year, and 6.1 billion dollars of additional investments had closed or were under contract after the second quarter.[Welltower Q2 2026 results]· primary
Evidence against
- Organic same-store revenue growth has eased from 0.101 in Q2 2025 to 0.092 in Q2 2026, so maintaining very high consolidated growth requires continued acquisitions.[Welltower Q2 2025 results]· primary
Operating margin23.0%low
How derived: Starting from a six-month EBIT-style margin near 0.173, this case assumes occupancy recovery, pricing above unit-cost growth and the operating platform eventually lift the company-wide result to 0.23.
Why this confidence: Reported pricing-cost spread ↑, Fourteen consecutive quarters of strong SHO property-income growth through Q1 2026 ↑, Large gap between property and consolidated profitability measures ↓
Measured by
- SHO same-store revenue growth, quarterly year over year9.2%reported
- SHO same-store occupancy, quarter end88.9%reported
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
Evidence for
- Q1 2026 seniors-housing same-store property margin expanded 0.032 to 0.309 as resident pricing grew 0.05 and unit expense only 0.004.[Welltower Q1 2026 business update]· primary
Evidence against
- The company-wide filing includes material depreciation and acquisition-related asset costs, making a 0.23 EBIT-style margin substantially more demanding than the property-level measure.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q]· primary
Tax rate1.5%medium
How derived: This case assumes continued REIT qualification and efficient structuring of taxable subsidiaries and international holdings hold normalized cash taxes to 0.015.
Why this confidence: Established REIT qualification ↑, International expansion and taxable resident operations ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Welltower has elected REIT taxation, and qualifying distributed income is generally not taxed federally at the parent level.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—REIT status]· primary
Evidence against
- The growing operating portfolio uses taxable subsidiaries, and the geographic mix includes foreign income and withholding taxes.[Welltower Q2 2026 10-Q—income taxes]· primary
Reinvestment rate85.0%low
How derived: With 15.5 billion dollars of 2026 completed-or-contracted investments and management reporting more than 48 billion dollars invested since late 2020, this case assumes Welltower can sustainably reinvest 0.85 of after-tax operating profit at attractive returns.
Why this confidence: Large historical and contracted deployment ↑, Management-reported acquisition returns ↑, Future financing spreads and asset availability ↓, Very high normalized reinvestment assumption ↓
Measured by
- SHO total-portfolio NOI margin, quarterly27.5%reported
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, quarter end2.99reported
- Pro-rata gross investments completed, quarterly$6.1Bderived
Evidence for
- Management reports more than 48 billion dollars of investments since Q4 2020 at high-single-digit to low-double-digit unlevered returns, with additional operating-platform upside.[Welltower investor relations overview]· primary
Evidence against
- The September 2026 ten-year Treasury yield was 0.0478, above Welltower's roughly 0.04 legacy average debt cost and therefore a potential constraint on future acquisition spreads.[U.S. Treasury daily yield curve]· primary
Terminal growth3.2%low
How derived: Rapid growth in the senior population, construction starts about 0.87 below peak and persistent pricing power support 0.032, still far below current reported and organic growth.
Why this confidence: Visible demographic tailwind ↑, Depressed current construction ↑, Aggressive perpetual market-share assumption ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Population aging continues beyond the explicit forecast period, while senior-housing absorption has run well above its pre-pandemic average and new construction is depressed.[Welltower Q1 2026 business update]· primary
Evidence against
- A 0.032 perpetual rate assumes Welltower continues taking share without triggering a material supply response, despite the Census Bureau projecting slower overall population growth after 2030.[U.S. Census demographic projections]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating55 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 79% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
- Diluted share count grew 11% year over year, which reduces per-share participation in business growth.→ per-share economics
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | 20.2% | — | — | 604.56M | 20.4% |
| Q3 2024 | 26.0% | — | — | 618.31M | 17.7% |
| Q1 2025 | 37.1% | — | — | 653.8M | 13.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 41.4% | — | — | 668.14M | 10.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 36.4% | — | — | 685.4M | 10.9% |
| Q1 2026 | 49.1% | — | — | 726.26M | 11.1% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The latest completed trading-day U.S. Treasury daily par curve reported a 0.0478 ten-year nominal yield.
The published five-year equity beta for WELL was 0.76 as of September 2026, indicating historically lower market sensitivity than the broad equity market.
The September 1, 2026 forward-looking implied premium based on trailing twelve-month adjusted payout was 0.0414.
WELL closed at 236.17 dollars on September 4, 2026, the latest completed market session.
Generated 9/6/2026, 4:26:01 AM · pipeline v1.2.0