WFC
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MNNYSEValuation snapshot
Above base casePrice is between the base and bull cases.
Price captured with valuation · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives WFC's base case?
base-case thesisWells Fargo's growth broadened in early 2026 as loans, deposits, interest income, and fees all increased. The asset-cap removal gives the bank room to add customers and balance-sheet assets, while expense initiatives support better profitability. Growth slows over time because banking remains cyclical, regulated, and sensitive to interest rates.
What shapes the assumptions
First-half revenue increased 0.08 from the prior-year period
Comparable first-half revenue growth
Raises revenue growth
Average deposits reached $1.466 trillion after 0.10 year-over-year growth
Average deposits
Raises revenue growth
Second-quarter efficiency improved to 0.60 from 0.64
Efficiency ratio
Raises operating margin
CET1 remained 0.103 while average loans expanded
CET1 capital ratio
Raises reinvestment
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 7.2% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 2.3% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 36.6% operating margin, against the 32.0% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 58.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Average loans, quarterly
Average loans measure the earning-asset base that generates interest income and consumes regulatory capital.
$1T
reported2. Average deposits, quarterly
Average deposits measure the scale and stability of Wells Fargo's principal funding base.
$1.5T
reported3. Efficiency ratio, quarterly
The ratio measures noninterest expense per dollar of revenue, so lower values indicate better cost efficiency.
60.0%
reported4. Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly
The ratio measures realized loan losses relative to average loans and directly affects credit provision and profit.
0.3%
reported5. CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end
CET1 measures the bank's highest-quality capital relative to risk-weighted assets and constrains growth and shareholder distributions.
10.3%
reportedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$86.8B
Diluted shares
3,074,600,000
Net cash
—
Bear
low confidence$43.72
IV / share
-51.4% vs $89.97
- Explicit cash flows
- $12.57
- Terminal value
- $31.15
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $43.72
71.3% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth3.0% → 2.0% → 1.5% → 1.5% → 1.5%medium
How derived: First-half 2026 revenue rose 0.08, but the forecast assumes loan growth slows, fee momentum fades, and rate-sensitive income settles near mature-bank growth.
Why this confidence: Management's current-year net-interest-income outlook ↑, Interest-rate and credit-cycle uncertainty ↓, Five-year forecast horizon ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Evidence for
- Full-year 2025 revenue increased only 0.02, showing that the recent acceleration follows a period of subdued growth.[Wells Fargo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 0.09 year over year, including 0.05 growth in net interest income and 0.13 growth in noninterest income.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Operating margin27.0%medium
How derived: Using revenue less noninterest expense and credit provision as the bank-equivalent operating-profit measure, the case assumes weaker credit and less expense leverage pull profitability below the approximately 0.32 first-half 2026 level.
Why this confidence: Quarterly expense and provision disclosures ↑, Quarter-to-quarter profitability volatility ↓, Uncertain future credit losses ↓
Measured by
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- Efficiency ratio, quarterly60.0%reported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
Evidence for
- The efficiency ratio was 0.67 in the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating that the exceptionally strong second-quarter cost result is not yet a stable run rate.[Wells Fargo 1Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- The efficiency ratio improved to 0.60 and pre-tax pre-provision profit rose 0.20 year over year in the second quarter of 2026.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Tax rate21.0%medium
How derived: Recent effective rates benefited from discrete items, so the bear case normalizes tax near the 0.21 federal statutory rate rather than extending those benefits.
Why this confidence: Known federal statutory rate ↑, Variable state, tax-exempt, and discrete items ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Wells Fargo uses a 0.21 federal statutory tax rate in its taxable-equivalent calculations.[Wells Fargo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate was 0.174 and included discrete tax benefits related to prior-period matters.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Reinvestment rate50.0%low
How derived: The case retains 0.50 of after-tax operating profit because rapid balance-sheet growth has already reduced the CET1 cushion and a weaker credit environment would require more loss-absorbing capital.
Why this confidence: Reported regulatory-capital position ↑, Reinvestment is a modeled bank-capital proxy ↓, Future stress-capital requirements are uncertain ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Evidence for
- The CET1 ratio declined from 0.111 in the second quarter of 2025 to 0.103 in the first quarter of 2026, partly because risk-weighted assets grew.[Wells Fargo 1Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- The second-quarter 2026 CET1 ratio remained 0.103 versus a disclosed regulatory minimum and buffers of 0.085, leaving capacity above the requirement.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Terminal growth1.5%low
How derived: The lifted asset cap permits growth, but the bear case assumes a mature regulated bank ultimately expands more slowly than the broader nominal economy.
Why this confidence: Long history as a mature regulated bank ↑, Perpetual forecast horizon ↓, Uncertain long-run inflation and regulation ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- Wells Fargo's annual revenue was nearly flat in 2024 and increased only 0.02 in 2025, consistent with modest mature-state growth.[Wells Fargo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- The Federal Reserve removed the asset-growth restriction after determining that Wells Fargo satisfied the required remediation conditions.[Federal Reserve asset-cap decision]· primary
Base
low confidence$78.73
IV / share
-12.5% vs $89.97
- Explicit cash flows
- $19.66
- Terminal value
- $59.07
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $78.73
75.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth6.5% → 4.5% → 3.5% → 3.0% → 2.5%medium
How derived: The path begins below first-half 2026 growth because management's approximately $50 billion net-interest-income outlook and current fee momentum support expansion, while rate sensitivity and normalization argue for gradual deceleration.
Why this confidence: Two reported quarters of broad-based growth ↑, Management's unchanged current-year outlook ↑, Rate-sensitive revenue mix ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Price implies: 7.2% vs our 4.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- First-half 2026 revenue increased 0.08, with second-quarter average loans and deposits increasing 0.12 and 0.10 year over year, respectively.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Management said net interest income depends on uncertain rates, yield-curve shape, deposit pricing, and loan demand.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Operating margin32.0%medium
How derived: The target holds near the first-half 2026 bank-equivalent operating margin as continuing efficiency gains offset normalization from the unusually strong second quarter.
Why this confidence: Reported expense and credit data ↑, Management's medium-term profitability target ↑, Quarterly trading, tax, and credit variability ↓
Measured by
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- Efficiency ratio, quarterly60.0%reported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
Price implies: 36.6% vs our 32.0% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Second-quarter efficiency improved to 0.60, and Wells Fargo has established a medium-term return-on-tangible-common-equity target of 0.17 to 0.18.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Management still expects approximately $55.7 billion of 2026 noninterest expense, and first-quarter efficiency was a weaker 0.67.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Tax rate19.0%medium
How derived: The assumption moves above recent benefit-affected effective rates but remains below the federal statutory rate because tax-exempt banking income and recurring state and tax-credit effects should persist.
Why this confidence: Audited annual tax expense ↑, Known statutory rate ↑, Nonrecurring discrete tax benefits ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate was 0.174, while the 2025 effective rate derived from reported tax expense and pre-tax income was approximately 0.152.[Wells Fargo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Both recent periods included tax benefits that may not recur, and the applicable federal statutory rate is 0.21.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Reinvestment rate40.0%low
How derived: Retaining 0.40 of after-tax operating profit balances continued loan and risk-weighted-asset growth against the bank's capital surplus and strong internal capital generation.
Why this confidence: Current CET1 and loan-growth disclosures ↑, Unknown future stress-capital buffer ↓, Modeled conversion of bank capital retention into reinvestment ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter average loans increased 0.12 year over year and CET1 remained 0.103, indicating that post-cap growth consumes regulatory capital.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Wells Fargo reported significant excess capital and returned $23 billion to shareholders during 2025.[Wells Fargo 2026 proxy statement]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%low
How derived: The central case assumes the removal of the growth restriction allows Wells Fargo to track long-run nominal economic and banking-system growth without sustaining its current post-cap acceleration forever.
Why this confidence: Asset-cap removal ↑, Mature banking-market economics ↑, Perpetual horizon and macroeconomic uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The asset-growth restriction was removed in June 2025, and average loans and deposits were still growing at double-digit rates in the second quarter of 2026.[Federal Reserve asset-cap decision]· primary
Evidence against
- Wells Fargo states that interest income remains sensitive to rates, deposit pricing, and loan demand, factors that can produce long periods of low nominal growth.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Bull
low confidence$107.07
IV / share
+19.0% vs $89.97
- Explicit cash flows
- $24.59
- Terminal value
- $82.48
- Net cash
- $0.00
- Intrinsic value / share
- $107.07
77.0% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
Revenue growth8.0% → 6.5% → 5.0% → 4.0% → 3.0%medium
How derived: The path extends first-half 2026 growth as the newly unconstrained balance sheet adds loans and deposits and the wealth and markets businesses sustain strong fee growth, followed by orderly maturation.
Why this confidence: Broad-based reported growth after asset-cap removal ↑, Only one year of post-cap operating evidence ↓, Dependence on markets and loan demand ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter revenue increased 0.09, average loans increased 0.12, average deposits increased 0.10, and noninterest income increased 0.13 year over year.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Management maintained rather than raised its approximately $50 billion 2026 net-interest-income outlook despite the strong second quarter.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Operating margin35.0%medium
How derived: The assumption is close to the second-quarter bank-equivalent operating margin and requires sustained positive operating leverage, contained credit losses, and achievement of management's higher return target.
Why this confidence: Second-quarter profitability reached the modeled level ↑, Management's 0.17 to 0.18 return target ↑, Single-quarter peak-margin evidence ↓
Measured by
- Average deposits, quarterly$1.5Treported
- Efficiency ratio, quarterly60.0%reported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
Evidence for
- Second-quarter pre-tax pre-provision profit increased 0.20, the efficiency ratio improved to 0.60, and return on tangible common equity reached 0.177.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- First-quarter efficiency was 0.67 and the annualized net charge-off ratio was 0.0045, illustrating the volatility around the bull-case margin.[Wells Fargo 1Q26 presentation]· primary
Tax rate18.0%medium
How derived: The bull case assumes recurring tax-exempt income and tax credits keep the normalized rate modestly above the second-quarter result but below the base case.
Why this confidence: Multiple periods below the statutory rate ↑, Discrete benefits in recent quarters ↓, Future tax-law uncertainty ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The second-quarter 2026 effective tax rate was 0.174 and the reported 2025 relationship between income-tax expense and pre-tax income was lower.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- The second-quarter rate included $132 million of discrete tax benefits, limiting its usefulness as a normalized rate.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Reinvestment rate35.0%low
How derived: The case retains 0.35 of after-tax operating profit because higher returns generate enough internal capital to fund growth while preserving distributions despite the expanding loan book.
Why this confidence: Demonstrated capital generation and distributions ↑, Rapid risk-weighted-asset growth ↓, Future regulatory-capital rules ↓
Measured by
- Average loans, quarterly$1Treported
- Net loan charge-off ratio, annualized quarterly0.3%reported
- CET1 capital ratio, quarter-end10.3%reported
Evidence for
- Wells Fargo reported significant excess capital and returned $23 billion to shareholders in 2025 while improving profitability.[Wells Fargo 2026 proxy statement]· primary
Evidence against
- The CET1 ratio declined to 0.103 as risk-weighted assets and loans expanded after the asset cap was lifted.[Wells Fargo 1Q26 presentation]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes Wells Fargo ultimately grows with a healthy nominal economy as its restored balance-sheet flexibility and diversified fee businesses preserve market share.
Why this confidence: Restored balance-sheet growth capacity ↑, Diversified interest and fee income ↑, Perpetual horizon and banking cyclicality ↓
No tracked driver measures this assumption yet.
Evidence for
- The removal of the asset-growth restriction was followed by double-digit growth in average loans, deposits, and wealth client assets by the second quarter of 2026.[Wells Fargo 2Q26 presentation]· primary
Evidence against
- Wells Fargo remains a mature, heavily regulated bank whose revenue has historically fluctuated with interest rates and credit conditions.[Wells Fargo 2025 Form 10-K]· primary
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating58 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 75% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
- The reinvestment assumption is low-confidence.→ reinvestment
- The terminal growth assumption is low-confidence.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -2.4% | — | — | 3.43B | -6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4% | — | — | 3.32B | -7.7% |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6% | — | — | 3.27B | -6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | 5.3% | — | — | 3.22B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | 6.4% | — | — | 3.12B | -6.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 8.6% | — | — | 3.07B | -5.9% |
Valuation history every run
History builds as the valuation is recalculated — this is the first recorded run.
Market inputs researched
The input uses WFC's reported five-year monthly equity beta, which is more company-specific than the lower diversified money-center-bank industry beta.
The input is the July 1, 2026 trailing-twelve-month adjusted-payout implied premium for the U.S. equity market.
The input is WFC's regular-session closing price on September 4, 2026.
Generated 9/5/2026, 7:58:12 PM · pipeline v1.2.0