WMT
Walmart Inc.NasdaqValuation snapshot
Above bull casePrice is above even the bull case.
Price as of Sep 4, 2026 · Valuation Sep 5, 2026
What drives WMT's base case?
base-case thesisWalmart just raised its own full-year sales and profit guidance after a quarter where global online sales jumped 23% and its advertising business grew nearly 40%, so this scenario simply takes management at its word. Sales growth runs in the mid-single digits, roughly matching the newly raised guidance, before gradually cooling as the base gets bigger. Profit margins tick up modestly as the faster-growing, higher-margin advertising, membership and marketplace businesses become a larger share of the mix, taxes run near the company's recent 24%-25% average, and Walmart keeps investing at its newly raised capital-spending pace to support that growth.
What shapes the assumptions
Raised FY2027 constant-currency sales guidance
Net sales growth guidance raised to 4.0%-5.0% from 3.5%-4.5%
Raises revenue growth
Operating income guided to outgrow sales
Adjusted operating income growth guidance raised to 7.0%-8.5% vs. sales growth of 4.0%-5.0%
Raises operating margin
Tax rate normalizes near recent three-year average
Effective tax rate (23.4%-25.5% over FY2024-FY2026)
Informs tax rate
Raised capex guidance funds continued automation/fulfillment build-out
FY2027 capex guidance raised to ~4.0% of net sales from 3.5%
Raises reinvestment
Steady, multi-quarter e-commerce and advertising growth outside the base
Global e-commerce growth of 23%-24% over the last two reported quarters
Raises terminal growth
Each driver links a business metric to the forecast assumption it shapes — the basis for this case, not investment advice.
Why the gap?
The market is pricing this as if revenue grows 28.7% a year. Over the last 5 years it grew 5.3% a year — so the price assumes far more than it has delivered.
What else could explain it?›
- Or, holding growth steady
- the price is also consistent with a 12.3% operating margin, against the 4.5% assumed here.
- How confident is this estimate?
- Robustness 68.0/10 (Moderate) — some of any gap is our own uncertainty rather than disagreement.
- What would change the answer?
- Which assumption this valuation swings on, and by how much.
Many combinations of assumptions reproduce the same price. These are ways to read what the market might be expecting, not the market's actual view. How this is worked out
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
View details
Research & assumptions
Inspect the valuation thesis, cases, risks, evidence, and model inputs.
Three independently researched cases generated automatically from published financials. Every assumption is justified and cited; the discount rate is computed from researched market inputs.
Company value drivers
Ranked operating metrics and the valuation assumptions they influence.
1. Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY
Measures how fast Walmart's online sales are growing worldwide; it is the clearest read on whether the company's faster-growing, higher-margin digital and advertising flywheel is accelerating or decelerating.
23.0%
reported1. Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel
This measures transaction and ticket growth in the largest segment on a consistent second-quarter basis and is the clearest recurring indicator of organic revenue momentum.
2.6%
reported2. Consolidated operating margin, quarterly
Operating income divided by total revenue each quarter; tracks whether Walmart's mix shift toward advertising/membership and cost discipline are translating into wider or narrower profit margins.
5.0%
derived2. Consolidated annual operating profit relative to net sales
This measures how much operating profit Walmart earns from each dollar of merchandise sales and directly determines modeled operating profit.
4.2%
derived3. Effective income tax rate, fiscal year
Walmart's total income tax provision divided by pre-tax income for the full fiscal year, as reported in the 10-K; it directly sets the wedge between operating profit and after-tax cash flow in the model.
24.4%
reported3. Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales
This tracks the digital shift in Walmart's largest segment, which supports growth and advertising opportunities but also changes fulfillment costs.
20.6%
derived4. Annual membership-fee revenue
This measures recurring revenue from Walmart+, Sam's Club, and other memberships, which strengthens retention and generally carries more attractive economics than merchandise sales.
$4.4B
reported4. Capital expenditures, % of net sales (annual guidance)
Management's own guidance for capital spending as a share of net sales; signals how aggressively Walmart is reinvesting in automation, fulfillment and stores to sustain growth.
4.0%
reported5. Walmart Connect / global advertising revenue growth, quarterly YoY
Growth rate of Walmart's advertising business (Walmart Connect plus international); one of the highest-margin, fastest-growing pieces of the business and a leading indicator of margin mix shift.
38.0%
reported5. Annual capital expenditures relative to net sales
This measures the cash investment required for stores, supply chain, automation, technology, and customer-facing initiatives and therefore determines how much operating profit converts to free cash flow.
3.8%
derivedBase inputs from financials
source period →Base revenue (TTM)
$728.5B
Diluted shares
7,978,000,000
Net cash
-$28.4B
Bear
low confidence$31.51
IV / share
-70.9% vs $108.42
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.45
- Terminal value
- $27.62
- Net cash
- -$3.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $31.51
87.7% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bear revenue growth (avg 3%) runs well above the trailing -13% trend
Revenue growth3.5% → 3.0% → 2.8% → 2.5% → 2.2%medium
How derived: Q1 FY27 net sales grew only 2.53% YoY, the weakest of the last eight reported quarters, before a tariff-refund-aided rebound; the bear case assumes tariff cost pass-through and consumer trade-down bring that weaker pace back, fading FY2027's 4.0%-5.0% guided range down toward Walmart's slower pre-2020 historical norm by year five.
Why this confidence: Guidance was just raised, working against this case's premise ↓, Four of the five forecast years sit beyond explicit management guidance ↓, Grounded in an actual, recently reported soft quarter rather than a hypothetical ↑
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
Evidence for
- Walmart's Q1 FY27 (quarter ended May 2, 2026) net sales grew just 2.53% year-over-year, the slowest of the last eight reported quarters[Walmart Q1 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
- Higher fuel costs are expected to add more than $2 billion of incremental cost in fiscal 2027, pressuring margins and consumer spending[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
Evidence against
- Walmart raised its FY2027 constant-currency net sales growth guidance to 4.0%-5.0% (from 3.5%-4.5%) after Q2 results, above this case's fading path[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
- Global e-commerce sales grew 23% in Q2 FY27, indicating continued strong momentum rather than a sharp deceleration[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
Operating margin3.8%medium
How derived: Quarterly operating margin has ranged 3.77%-5.04% over the last eight quarters, bottoming in Q3 FY26 (3.77%); the bear case assumes price investment and unrecovered tariff costs push margin back to that trough and hold it there, stripping out the roughly 750bp one-time tariff-refund benefit that lifted Q2 FY27's reported margin.
Why this confidence: Tariff and fuel cost impacts are genuinely variable/one-time and hard to size precisely years out ↓, Eight consecutive quarters of reported margin data ground the assumed trough in actuals ↑, Structural mix shift toward advertising/membership works against sustained margin compression ↓
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Consolidated operating margin, quarterly5.0%derived
- Consolidated annual operating profit relative to net sales4.2%derived
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
- Walmart Connect / global advertising revenue growth, quarterly YoY38.0%reported
- Annual capital expenditures relative to net sales3.8%derived
Evidence for
- Walmart's Q2 FY27 adjusted operating income growth of 17.4% in constant currency included a net approximate 750 basis point benefit from tariff refunds, a one-time item[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
- Higher fuel costs are expected to pressure margins further in fiscal 2027[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
Evidence against
- Almost half of Walmart's underlying profit growth in Q2 FY27 came from membership, advertising and marketplace — structurally higher-margin businesses, not a one-time item[Walmart Inc (WMT) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary
Tax rate26.0%medium
How derived: Effective tax rate swung from 25.5% (FY2024) to 23.4% (FY2025, aided by a one-time -6.0 point net repatriation benefit) to 24.4% (FY2026, hurt by a non-deductible PhonePe stock-comp charge); the bear case assumes favorable one-time items stop recurring and the rate drifts slightly above the FY2024 level.
Why this confidence: Three consecutive years of audited 10-K tax-rate data bound the plausible range ↑, One-time items (PhonePe charge, repatriation benefits) make single-year rates noisy predictors of the future run rate ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year24.4%reported
Evidence for
- Walmart's FY2026 effective tax rate rose to 24.4%, driven by a non-deductible share-based compensation charge at its PhonePe subsidiary[Walmart FY2026 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Walmart's FY2025 effective tax rate was 23.4%, benefiting from a -6.0 percentage point net impact of repatriated international earnings and -1.4 points of federal tax credits, well below this case's 26% assumption[Walmart Inc. Income Taxes analysis]· secondary
Reinvestment rate35.0%low
How derived: Initial FY2027 capex guidance sat near 3.5% of net sales before later being raised; the bear case assumes management reins investment intensity back toward that lower 3.0%-3.5% band as growth disappoints and returns on incremental capital look less attractive.
Why this confidence: Actual company guidance moved the opposite direction (capex raised, not cut), directly contradicting this case ↓, Relies on a single early-year guidance data point rather than a multi-year disclosed capital-intensity trend ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Walmart's capital expenditures were guided at approximately 3.0%-3.5% of net sales heading into FY2027[Walmart Q4 FY26 Earnings Release]· primary
Evidence against
- Walmart raised FY2027 capex guidance to approximately 4.0% of net sales (from 3.5%) to fund automation, fulfillment and store remodels, indicating rising rather than falling reinvestment intensity[Walmart Q2 FY27 slides: strong results, raised guidance, tariff boost]· secondary
Terminal growth2.0%medium
How derived: With e-commerce and advertising growth assumed to decelerate to ordinary retail rates and the domestic store base largely mature, terminal growth is set near the long-run US inflation/nominal-GDP floor rather than Walmart's faster recent growth.
Why this confidence: Terminal-value assumptions are inherently unverifiable and sit decades beyond visible guidance ↓, Grounded in Walmart's own pre-2020 multi-year growth history rather than an arbitrary guess ↑
Measured by
Evidence for
- Walmart's revenue grew at a low single-digit compound rate for much of 2014-2019, before the pandemic/digital-era reacceleration, showing a mature low-growth phase is a real historical precedent[Walmart (WMT) Revenue 2010-2026]· secondary
Evidence against
- Walmart's revenue growth has instead been accelerating recently, running from 2.5% up to 7.1% across the last six reported quarters, not decaying toward a 2% floor[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Base
medium confidence$37.38
IV / share
-65.5% vs $108.42
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.85
- Terminal value
- $33.10
- Net cash
- -$3.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $37.38
88.5% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
base revenue growth (avg 4%) runs well above the trailing -13% trend
Revenue growth4.5% → 4.2% → 3.8% → 3.5% → 3.2%high
How derived: Starts at the midpoint of management's just-raised FY2027 constant-currency guidance (4.0%-5.0%) and fades gradually toward Walmart's FY2023-FY2026 average reported growth (6.7%, 6.1%, 5.0%, 4.7%) as the revenue base gets larger.
Why this confidence: Directly anchored to management's own most recent, raised full-year guidance ↑, Guidance only covers one fiscal year explicitly; years two through five are extrapolated ↓
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
Price implies: 28.7% vs our 3.8% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Walmart raised FY2027 guidance for constant-currency net sales growth to 4.0%-5.0% from 3.5%-4.5% after Q2 results[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Evidence against
- Q3 FY27 guidance calls for a deceleration to just 3.0%-3.75% constant-currency growth, below the full-year range's midpoint used here[Walmart (WMT) Q2 2027 earnings]· secondary
Operating margin4.5%medium
How derived: Guided operating income growth (7.0%-8.5%) outpacing guided sales growth (4.0%-5.0%) implies annual operating leverage from the FY2026 base; applying that spread to the trailing four-quarter average reported margin (~4.15%) lands near 4.5% by mid-forecast, consistent with continued mix-shift toward advertising and membership.
Why this confidence: Based on management's own explicit operating-income-versus-sales growth guidance spread ↑, Guidance blends a one-time tariff-refund tailwind that will not repeat, clouding the underlying run-rate ↓
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Consolidated operating margin, quarterly5.0%derived
- Consolidated annual operating profit relative to net sales4.2%derived
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
- Walmart Connect / global advertising revenue growth, quarterly YoY38.0%reported
- Annual capital expenditures relative to net sales3.8%derived
Price implies: 12.3% vs our 4.5% — one of several sets that fit this price
Evidence for
- Walmart raised FY2027 adjusted operating income growth guidance to 7.0%-8.5% (from 6.0%-8.0%), above raised sales growth guidance of 4.0%-5.0%, implying margin expansion[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Evidence against
- A meaningful part of Q2 FY27's operating income growth (~750bps) came from one-time tariff refunds rather than structural margin gain, so underlying leverage may be smaller than headline guidance implies[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
Tax rate24.5%high
How derived: Effective tax rate has been 25.5% (FY2024), 23.4% (FY2025) and 24.4% (FY2026); the base case uses the trailing three-year average (~24.4%) as the best estimate of a normalized run-rate.
Why this confidence: Three consecutive years of audited 10-K tax-rate data support the estimate ↑, An outlier year (FY2023 at 33.6%) shows real tail risk around this assumption ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year24.4%reported
Evidence for
- Walmart's effective tax rate was 24.4% in FY2026, in line with the 23%-26% range of the prior two years[Walmart FY2026 10-K]· primary
Evidence against
- Walmart's FY2023 effective tax rate spiked to 33.6%, showing the rate can deviate sharply above a normalized 24%-25% assumption in an unusual year[Walmart Inc. Income Taxes analysis]· secondary
Reinvestment rate45.0%medium
How derived: Management raised FY2027 capex guidance to approximately 4.0% of net sales (from 3.5%) for automation, fulfillment capacity and store remodels; grossing this up for the working-capital investment behind e-commerce/membership growth gives a reinvestment rate near 45% of NOPAT.
Why this confidence: Directly sourced from management's own current-year capex guidance ↑, Converting a capex-to-sales ratio into a NOPAT-based reinvestment rate requires an estimated working-capital add-on that is not directly disclosed ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- Walmart raised its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance to approximately 4.0% of net sales, up from 3.5%, to fund automation, fulfillment and remodels[Walmart Q2 FY27 slides: strong results, raised guidance, tariff boost]· secondary
Evidence against
- Walmart's capex ratio had been guided as low as 3.0%-3.5% of net sales earlier in the fiscal year, showing the reinvestment rate is not static and could revert lower[Walmart Q4 FY26 Earnings Release]· primary
Terminal growth2.5%medium
How derived: Set in line with long-run nominal U.S. GDP growth (real growth plus inflation), consistent with a scaled, mature retailer that cannot outgrow the broader economy indefinitely even though near-term guidance is faster.
Why this confidence: Standard practice of capping terminal growth near long-run economy-wide growth limits estimation error ↑, Never directly observable — a judgment call decades beyond disclosed guidance ↓
Measured by
Evidence for
- The 10-Year Treasury yield, a common proxy for long-run nominal growth expectations, stood at 4.78% on September 4, 2026[US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield]· secondary
Evidence against
- Walmart's own revenue growth has run well above 2.5% in every one of the last six quarters, so a 2.5% terminal rate is a significant step down from current momentum[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Bull
low confidence$42.62
IV / share
-60.7% vs $108.42
- Explicit cash flows
- $7.89
- Terminal value
- $38.29
- Net cash
- -$3.56
- Intrinsic value / share
- $42.62
89.8% of the value rests on the terminal value — high dependency. A small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot — see terminal growth below.
bull revenue growth (avg 5%) runs well above the trailing -13% trend
Revenue growth6.0% → 5.5% → 5.0% → 4.5% → 4.0%medium
How derived: Q1 FY27 revenue grew 7.14% YoY, and global e-commerce (+23% in Q2 FY27) and Walmart Connect advertising (+38% worldwide) are compounding far faster than the base business; the bull case assumes this mix shift keeps blended growth above the top of guidance for several years before fading.
Why this confidence: Grounded in an actually-reported quarter (7.14% growth), not a hypothetical ↑, Sits above management's own raised guidance range, so it requires guidance to be beaten repeatedly ↓
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
Evidence for
- Walmart's Q1 FY27 net sales grew 7.14% year-over-year, above the high end of full-year FY2027 guidance[Walmart Q1 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
- Global e-commerce sales grew 23% and Walmart's advertising business grew 38% worldwide (43% for Walmart Connect ex-Vizio) in Q2 FY27[Walmart ad business gains 38% as Walmart Connect hits 43% in Q2]· secondary
Evidence against
- Walmart's own FY2027 full-year guidance tops out at 5.0% constant-currency net sales growth, below this case's 6.0% starting assumption[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Operating margin5.2%low
How derived: Almost half of Q2 FY27's profit growth came from membership, advertising and marketplace per management commentary; the bull case assumes this structurally higher-margin mix keeps consolidated operating margin durably at or above the 5.04% level reported in Q2 FY27, rather than treating that quarter as a one-off tariff-refund spike.
Why this confidence: Relies on sustaining a single quarter's margin level that was inflated by a disclosed one-time item ↓, Directionally consistent with management's own statement that high-margin businesses drove profit growth ↑
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Consolidated operating margin, quarterly5.0%derived
- Consolidated annual operating profit relative to net sales4.2%derived
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
- Walmart Connect / global advertising revenue growth, quarterly YoY38.0%reported
- Annual capital expenditures relative to net sales3.8%derived
Evidence for
- Almost half of Walmart's underlying profit growth in Q2 FY27 came from membership, advertising and marketplace — high-margin businesses growing much faster than the core[Walmart Inc (WMT) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Highlights]· secondary
Evidence against
- Q2 FY27's reported operating margin of ~5.04% included an approximate 750-basis-point net benefit from one-time tariff refunds that will not repeat[Walmart Q2 FY27 results coverage]· secondary
Tax rate22.5%low
How derived: Uses Walmart's most favorable recent year (FY2025's 23.4%, aided by a -6.0 point net repatriation benefit and -1.4 points of federal tax credits) as a repeatable run-rate, assuming continued favorable international earnings mix and tax planning push the rate slightly below even that level.
Why this confidence: Based on an actual reported year rather than a hypothetical ↑, That favorable year was immediately followed by a higher rate, undercutting persistence, and this case assumes an even lower rate than either ↓
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year24.4%reported
Evidence for
- Walmart's FY2025 effective tax rate was 23.4%, aided by a -6.0 percentage point net impact from repatriated international earnings and -1.4 points of federal tax credits[Walmart Inc. Income Taxes analysis]· secondary
Evidence against
- The following year (FY2026) the rate rose back to 24.4% due to a non-deductible PhonePe compensation charge, showing favorable years are not guaranteed to persist or improve further[Walmart FY2026 10-K]· primary
Reinvestment rate55.0%low
How derived: The bull case assumes Walmart pushes reinvestment intensity above the already-raised ~4.0%-of-sales FY2027 capex guidance to accelerate automation, fulfillment and international digital platforms (e.g., its PhonePe stake), funding faster growth from the higher-margin cash flow it is generating.
Why this confidence: Extrapolates beyond the highest reinvestment level management has actually guided to ↓, Directionally consistent with a real, recent guidance increase rather than invented from nothing ↑
Measured by
Evidence for
- Walmart already raised FY2027 capex guidance once this year, to ~4.0% of net sales from 3.5%, showing a willingness to keep increasing investment intensity[Walmart Q2 FY27 slides: strong results, raised guidance, tariff boost]· secondary
Evidence against
- Management's disclosed guidance stops at approximately 4.0% of net sales; no company guidance supports a materially higher reinvestment rate[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Terminal growth3.0%low
How derived: Assumes Walmart's global e-commerce and advertising scale (already growing 20%-40%+ annually) let it keep growing modestly above long-run nominal GDP in perpetuity via continued market-share gains, rather than converging fully to the economy-wide growth rate.
Why this confidence: A perpetual terminal-growth assumption above long-run GDP is aggressive for an already-$700B-revenue company ↓, Grounded in genuinely strong, multi-quarter reported digital growth rates ↑
Measured by
Evidence for
- Walmart's global e-commerce sales have grown at double-digit to low-20s percentage rates for multiple consecutive quarters (24% in Q4 FY26, 23% in Q2 FY27)[Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release]· primary
Evidence against
- No mature, roughly $700-billion-revenue retailer has sustained above-GDP perpetual growth indefinitely; terminal growth above long-run nominal GDP is inherently aggressive for a company already this large[Reasoned estimate based on long-run GDP proxy]· estimate
Valuation robustness
reliability of the estimate, not a stock rating68 / 100 · Moderate
Formula v1.0.0. Higher means a more reliable estimate — not a recommendation.
Quality checks
Automated model-risk flags — warnings, not recommendations.
- 89% of the intrinsic value rests on the terminal value — a small change to terminal growth moves the valuation a lot.→ terminal growth
Per-share economics
Business growth after changes in the diluted share count.
| Period | Revenue growth | FCF/share | FCF/share growth | Shares | Share growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 5.4% | 0.05 | 108.0% | 8.08B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% | 0.05 | 199.9% | 8.05B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8% | 0.81 | 4.7% | 8.02B | -0.8% |
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | 0.23 | 410.4% | 8.01B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2027 | 7.1% | -0.24 | -560.9% | 8B | -0.6% |
| Q2 2027 | 5.9% | 0.94 | 15.2% | 7.98B | -0.5% |
Valuation history every run
Why intrinsic value changed
Why
Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY moved from an unreported prior value to 23.0%, as reported in Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release.
Measured by
- Global e-commerce sales growth, quarterly YoY23.0%reported
- Walmart U.S. Q2 comparable-sales growth excluding fuel2.6%reported
- Walmart U.S. annual eCommerce share of net sales20.6%derived
- Annual membership-fee revenue$4.4Breported
Why
Effective income tax rate, fiscal year moved from an unreported prior value to 24.4%, as reported in Walmart FY2026 10-K.
Measured by
- Effective income tax rate, fiscal year24.4%reported
Why
Consolidated operating margin, quarterly moved from an unreported prior value to 5.0%, as reported in Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release.
Measured by
Sequential deterministic bridge · order-dependent contributions · exactly reconciled
Material event timeline
8/20/2026
Consolidated operating margin, quarterly moved from an unreported prior value to 5.0%, as reported in Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release.
Walmart Q2 FY27 Earnings Release ↗Market inputs researched
10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield as of September 4, 2026, used as the risk-free rate for a USD-denominated cost of equity.
Reported raw beta for WMT versus the broader market as of mid-April 2026, consistent with Walmart's defensive, low-volatility profile as a mature staples retailer; other providers (e.g., CNBC at 0.58) corroborate a sub-1.0 beta, though estimates vary by methodology.
Aswath Damodaran's mid-2026 data update reports a US implied equity risk premium of 4.45%, reflecting current index cash-flow yields and growth expectations relative to the risk-free rate.
Recent traded price for WMT common stock, used as the current market anchor against which the DCF's implied fair value is compared.
Generated 9/5/2026, 9:31:44 AM · pipeline v1.2.0